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The problem that every country faced – and continues to face – was how to continue the electrification process into areas that will show no immediate return and make little economic sense. Municipal companies merged, voltage levels increased, networks became more complex and rather than a radial topography extending along communication routes, proper grid networks were developed as recognized today. As neighbouring communities expanded, their networks overlapped and the second wave of development began. This was the nature of development in every industrialized nation including the U.S., U.K.
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Networks then radiated and expanded to include more consumers to a point where the population density fell and it no longer was economical to install distribution network for a few additional consumers. This was funded either by entrepreneurial capital, co-operative funding or town civil administration, the point being that in densely populated areas it was profitable to install a generator, cable to houses and sell electricity to the town inhabitants. In the early days of electrification in the 1900s electricity generation and distribution was developed on a local municipal basis, much as had the gas industry some years earlier. The simple answer is that power consumers pay the bill at the end of the day – either directly or indirectly. Who will fund that investment is the major question. Enhanced investment levels experienced in North America circa 2015 to 2030 will begin to fall away after 2030 to less than 2% during the last period.Īdvertisement Grid Development & Barriers to Growth Europe and former Soviet Union (FSU) continue to invest at about 2 to 2.5% during the whole period but this masks the fact that Western Europe struggles to reach 2% CAGR and is ‘propped up’ by the FSU, showing over 3% during the whole period. However, total investment only increases from $15.9 billion to $51.3 billion during the first and second decade respectively. The Indian sub-continent shows the highest CAGR of just less than 7% from 2020 to 2030 and over 5% from 2030 to 2040. The global industry continues to be dominated by investment in Asia rising from 45% of the global investment in 2020 to over 51% in 2040 with CAGR of 5% during the first decade and 4.4% in the second period. CLICK TO ENLARGE Table 3: Global Investment to 2040 – By Region. Grid development, enhancement, reinforcement, changes in the profile of generating facilities, demographic shifts and extra-territorial interconnections will all impact on markets and rates of development as of course will ability to pay for such development.
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But growth will not be evenly distributed across the globe and the drivers in each region will also vary according to the development cycle in each. Then, over the following decade this will exceed the total Japanese GDP estimate for 2019. For example, investment between 20 will equal total German GDP in 2018 or the combined GDP of Italy and Canada. CLICK TO ENLARGE Table 2: Global Investment in T&D by Decade. However, best estimates are that the period from 2030 to 2040 will show overall growth slowing to near 3.2% by 2040, yielding a total investment of $5.2 trillion during that decade. Table 1: Future Global Investment in T & D. Total investment between 20 will be on the order of $3.5 trillion and with a CAGR of about 2% between 20 will total $4.7 trillion. Total investment in the decade 2010 to 2020 will be $2.3 trillion even if the growth rates cools to half of those levels experienced since the 2008 crash, by 2040 annual investment will have reached $470 billion.
It is estimated that the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) over the next 10-year period will be 4.15%, meaning that investment by 2030 will be $386 billion (measured in 2019 US dollar values). Global investment in transmission and distribution systems in 2019 was a little over $240 billion and by 2020 will have reached $250 billion. Goulden Reports is a well-established consultancy offering research and data to several industries, in particular suppliers of components and equipment for the power transmission and distribution sectors. This report is an edited version of a recent contribution to INMR by Steve Aubertin of Goulden Reports in the United Kingdom.
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